Steel Market Breakfast】2025.10.29

Sino-US trade relations are showing signs of easing, with the leaders of both countries planning to meet during the APEC summit, sending a positive signal. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits continued to grow in September. The central bank reiterated its supportive monetary policy and resumed treasury bond trading, leading to market expectations of a looser liquidity environment.

With improved macroeconomic expectations and rush-to-finish demand in some regions, market prices are steadily rising. Spot prices are expected to remain stable today, with some markets seeing slight increases of 0-10 yuan.

Raw Material Trend Analysis

[Coking Coke and Coal] Prices saw some increases yesterday. The second round of price increases for coke has largely been implemented, but steel mills' profit margins have narrowed, dampening their enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials. Coking coal prices remain relatively firm, putting coking plants on the brink of profitability. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain stable today, with some prices showing strength.

[Billets] Prices remained stable yesterday, with some seeing slight increases. The mainstream spot price of billets closed at 3,030-3,040 yuan/ton, with most prices remaining stable and trading volume moderate, indicating low market activity. Most steel profile prices rose by 10 yuan, with shipments of low-priced resources still strong and overall transaction volume average. Traders remain cautious in purchasing, and billet prices are expected to remain generally stable today, with some prices seeing a slight increase.

[Iron Ore] Prices fell yesterday. While shipments from Australia and Brazil have recently increased, port arrivals have decreased month-over-month, and port inventories continue to accumulate. While molten iron production has declined slightly, average daily transaction volume this month has increased month-over-month, leading to a strong wait-and-see market sentiment. Given that molten iron production remains relatively high, steel mills' demand for raw materials remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate today, with some markets experiencing a slight rebound.

[Scrap] Prices rose in some markets yesterday. Scrap inventories at major steel mills nationwide increased slightly, daily consumption decreased slightly, and arrivals increased slightly. Currently, steel mills continue to need to replenish their inventory, with scrap bases and mill inventories remaining low. Market resources are tight. Combined with finished product transactions and policy expectations, scrap prices continue to follow finished product trends. Prices are expected to remain generally stable today, with some markets experiencing a slight increase.